Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
